Nearly two-thirds (65%) of business leaders around the world think that fossil fuels will still be the world's primary energy source in 2030, according to a new report published today by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Despite increased investment in renewables over recent years, the latest statistics show that renewable energy provides for only 7% of the world's total energy consumption, while fossil fuels still account for 88% (see below for a full breakdown of global energy consumption by source).
In the report, The Global Energy Conversation Part II: Solutions to 2050, which was supported by Shell, leading experts warn that continued heavy use of fossil fuels will not allow for the kind of large-scale emissions reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change, and they explain their 'energy solutions to 2050'.
Joan MacNaughton, Executive Chairman at the World Energy Council, says that: "There is no silver bullet of policy that addresses all needs simultaneously", but "carbon pricing is probably the most important single measure" that states need to introduce. She also thinks that more emphasis should be placed on sharing information about energy policy best practice around the world:
"We need more rigorous evaluations of energy-policy instruments to bring to light more reliable evidence on what works and what pitfalls to avoid. It is necessary to translate global findings about successful policy instruments into local arrangements and settings that work.”
Reg Platt, Research Fellow at UK think-tank the Institute for Public Policy Research, argues that investment in low carbon energy will increase if governments start viewing these kinds of investments as drivers of economic growth:
"Governments should make investments to create a low carbon and secure energy system on the basis of the growth and jobs potential these investments offer, not merely on account of which is cheapest."
Tim Weiss and Ed Whittingham, from Canadian think-tank the Pembina Institute, say that renewables will become more practical if power storage can be improved:
"Large-scale power storage is widely accepted as one key technological innovation that requires development and deployment to allow renewable energy to become the backbone of power systems. Left unaddressed, variable output technologies like wind and solar will start to encounter barriers to high levels of market penetration."
Contributors to the report also think that improved energy efficiency will be a key part of the solution. For example, Gregory Kats, an energy investor and advisor, argues that:
"Energy efficiency is the largest most cost effective way we have of meeting energy needs and reducing carbon emissions. It decarbonises the energy system in that it allows us to switch to lower energy intensity and reduce the amount of waster."
Alex Laskey, President of Opower, explains that improving energy efficiency will require widespread behaviour change on the part of energy consumers:
"Behaviour change can not only have a drastic impact on our environment, but can also accelerate the adoption of other impactful energy improvements such as deriving more power from renewable resources or making structural changes to people’s homes.”
Finally, Wim Thomas, Chief Energy Advisor at Shell, explains why he thinks fossil fuels will remain a key part of the energy mix in the decades ahead:
"Fossil fuels will remain a very important part of the energy mix.… [The reason] is that the developing world needs energy to fuel its rapid economic growth, and fossil fuels are available now, whereas it takes decades to build new infrastructure for renewables at scale."
Key findings from an Economist Intelligence Unit survey conducted as part of the research included the following:
- Nearly two-thirds of respondents (65%) think fossil fuels will still be the world’s primary energy source in 2030, but only 21% think that will still be the case in 2050.
- 95% think energy efficiency can play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions.
- 79% would support reforms combating climate change if the changes had no effect on their real income, but only 26% would agree if these led to a decline in their real income of more than 5%.
- 42% think democracy stands in the way of action on climate change.
In 2010, world energy consumption by source was as follows:
Source | Share of world energy consumption |
Oil | 34% |
Coal | 30% |
Natural gas | 24% |
Hydro | 6% |
Nuclear | 5% |
Renewables (excluding hydro) | 1% |
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2011
The global energy conversation part II: Solutions to 2050
You can download the report info-graphic separately
Press enquiries:
Joanne McKenna, Press Liaison, +44 (0)20 7576 8188; joannemckenna@eiu.com
Chris Webber, Senior Editor, +44 (0)20 7576 8239; chriswebber@economist.com
About the research:
The global energy conversation part II: Solutions to 2050 is an Economist Intelligence Unit report supported by Shell. It follows a telepresence event held in London, São Paulo and Washington in November 2011 that was broadcast live over the Internet to 1,600 online viewers.
The supporting survey gathered the views of 790 respondents from the Economist Intelligence Unit's survey panel. The survey was carried out between September and October 2011 and respondents were drawn from the Americas (41%), Europe (20%), the Middle East and Africa (20%) and Asia-Pacific (19%).
Please visit this site to find out more:
http://www.economistconferences.co.uk/global-energy-conversation2/home
About the Economist Intelligence Unit
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the world's leading resource for economic and business research, forecasting and analysis. It provides accurate and impartial intelligence for companies, government agencies, financial institutions and academic organisations around the globe, inspiring business leaders to act with confidence since 1946. EIU products include its flagship Country Reports service, providing political and economic analysis for 195 countries, and a portfolio of subscription-based data and forecasting services. The company also undertakes bespoke research and analysis projects on individual markets and business sectors. More information is available at www.eiu.com or follow us on www.twitter.com/theeiu
The EIU is headquartered in London, UK, with offices in more than 40 cities and a network of some 650 country experts and analysts worldwide. It operates independently as the business-to-business arm of The Economist Group, the leading source of analysis on international business and world affairs.
About Shell
Shell is a global group of energy and petrochemicals companies with around 93,000 employees in more than 90 countries and territories. For more information about Shell visit their company website. www.shell.com.
