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Thursday, 17 May 2012

The EIU view on Romania joining the Eurozone

In its Convergence Programme for 2011-14, the outgoing government confirmed its intention to adopt the euro in 2015 and to enter the exchange-rate mechanism (ERM2) at some time in 2013-14. As economies are required to spend a minimum of two years within ERM2 before adopting the euro, adopting the euro in January 2015 would require a commitment to enter ERM2 in January 2013. However, the official target date leaves open the possibility that euro-adoption could be delayed from until December 2015. The government formed after the November 2012 parliamentary elections, which will have a four-year mandate until elections in 2016, will no doubt review the 2015 target date in consultation with the National Bank of Romania (NBR, the central bank).

 

The EIU considers the 2015 target to be unrealistic and even a little strange given developments in the euro zone. Romania may face difficulties in meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) convergence criteria on inflation, fiscal deficits and long-term interest-rate in time to adopt the euro in 2015. Romania also needs to improve its competitiveness before joining European economic and monetary union (EMU). Given the uncertainties facing the euro area, it would be beneficial for the NBR to retain control of the exchange rate, giving it the flexibility to restore competitiveness in the face of asymmetric shocks. As a result of all these factors, the EIU expects that Romania will postpone adoption of the euro until 2016 or 2017 at the earliest

 

More on Romania at www.eiu.com

Last modified on Wednesday, 21 August 2013 16:25
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